The stage is almost set for possibly one of the most epic political battles ever recorded in the nation’s young democracy. If the situation remains the same and no compromise, no agreement, is reached between two of the opposition’s front runners in the 2027 presidential race, then we will, in the coming months, have on our hands the most fiercely contested presidential primary ever witnessed in this part of the globe. It could make all the noise and fireworks leading to the 2023 APC primary, which produced the then Asiwaju Bola Tinubu as its standard bearer, pale into insignificance. That is how big this battle for the ADC presidential ticket might turn out to be. Except something dramatic happens before the primary takes place.
Former vice president, Atiku Abubakar, and former Anambra state governor, Peter Obi, are, without a doubt, two of the most talked about politicians in the country at this time. Both of them are contesting for the presidency on the platform of the strongest opposition party -the ADC. They are both hugely popular. They both have massive followership. And they both share strong convictions to become the next president of Nigeria when the citizens go to the polls to elect the candidate who will be their president for the next four years. But there can only be one president.
The last couple of months have been very busy ones for Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi. They have both been immersed in intense strategic meetings and consultations that have seen them traverse the length and breadth of Nigeria. There have been talks about Peter Obi agreeing to accept offer of running mate to Atiku, but the man had promptly gone public to distance himself from such agreement. He stated clearly that he has not been traveling the world to learn about governance only to end up as vice president. He wants to be president and he couldn’t see how becoming Atiku’s running mate will help his aspirations. So, the question every Nigerian who’s been following the situation closely is asking is, who should the ADC ticket go to? Who among these two heavy weights has what it takes to unseat Tinubu? Which one of them can defeat the President at the polls come 2027? Let us share with you what the prevailing mood out there is.
Peter Obi, many acknowledge, enjoys great youth support. Young Nigerians see him as the only one of the top three presidential candidates that has any semblance of youthfulness on his side. Peter Obi is 64 while Atiku is 79. And luckily for Obi, his political profile got a massive boost in 2023 when he threw his hat in the ring at a time Nigerians badly wanted a change in the leadership of the country. There were growing frustrations against the ruling party, APC at the time (there still is) and people were clamouring for a change of baton. They wanted any kind of change, so long as it had a name different from the APC and the flag bearer was much younger than Tinubu and Atiku. And Peter Obi was the perfect fit. Any other person in his mould would still have been perfect but the former Anambra state governor was on the ballot at the right time and with the right age. And yes, he was on a platform different from the ruling party- the Labour Party. He had the momentum swinging in his favour. The entire southeast roared his name and his vociferous supporters called the Obidients, verbally attacked anyone who preferred a presidential candidate different from Obi. Even the outrage from the Endsars saga also helped his political ambition in no small measure. His prospects looked promising. He seemed destined to become the first democratically elected president of Igbo extraction. But, in the end, it was an anti-climax. Bola Tinubu came first, Atiku Abubakar emerged second while Peter Obi came third, a long way off the first position he and his supporters desperately wanted.
Fast forward to 2026. Many insist the dynamics have changed.
A lot of the indices that swung in Peter Obi’s favour are largely non existent
today. Segun Sowunmi, a Chieftain of the PDP, got it spot on when he explained
that changing leadership dynamics in the southeast have weakened Obi’s 2023
electoral advantage. Nearly all the states in the southeast are all presently aligning
with the President and the ruling party. According to
him, governors currently in office across the region are more assertive,
influential and performance-driven than their predecessors, making it difficult
for Obi to command the same level of dominance he enjoyed previously.
He says: “If you look at 2023, the people sitting in authority at the governor’s level in the South-East were not particularly inspirational. “You have to look at the leaders sitting there now. Some of them are delivering value, delivering on assignment, and they are inspirational. None of those people can be run over easily," Sowunmi said.
“Peter Obi got over 90 per cent in some places and created a movement, even though it came very late. It gave our South-East brothers hope that the glass ceiling could be broken. But that environment has changed," he said.
The former Atiku ally also blamed what he described as internal excesses within Obi’s support base for weakening the former Anambra governor’s appeal beyond his core supporters. Sowunmi argued that unchecked anger, intolerance and political hostility among some of Obi’s followers had alienated potential allies and undecided voters. “Unfortunately, the inability to tame excessive bigotry, anger and constant quarrels among some of his supporters has created pushback. Politics is persuasion, not aggression," he said.
And frankly, without his stronghold, the southeast under his electoral control, Obi lacks the political muscle to push for any credible fight against Tinubu.
Atiku, on the other hand, has gotten even stronger. He has remained the quiet, calm and calculative old fox that he is. Some say that because he has contested election many times, he should take a back seat. They think that he may have lost what it takes to win a presidential election. On the contrary, they have conveniently failed to acknowledge that Atiku, consistently, finished second in the presidential elections he contested in. That is consistency. That is experience. That is a man with his sights set firmly on his goal. Atiku has shown character, he has shown resilience. He has also shown an incredible resolve and desire to get into governance and help Nigeria get back up from the bottomless pit it has plunged into, all thanks to the recklessness of our leaders, past and present.
One of the biggest advantages Atiku has over Peter Obi is his wide spread support and appeal. He is a man that has spent the last few decades building bridges that have made him one of the country's biggest political juggernauts. While many will agree that Peter Obi is largely dominant only in the south east, Atiku has a broader appeal that spreads beyond the northern part of the country where he comes from. This is evident in the results he polled in 2023. Apart from the south east where he didn't do so well, he did creditably well in the other regions, hence his second place finish. Today, unlike Peter Obi who’s lost hold of his only stronghold, Atiku has retained his firm grip on the north and is looking even stronger and expected to amass much more votes from the region than he did the last time. This is because the north has become totally disenchanted with the present administration. It now looks up to Atiku Abubakar to get into power and provide the quality and humane leadership the Tinubu government appears to be totally lacking.
Beyond all of these, Atiku’s spread and nationwide network is undisputable. He has an entrenched and structured political machine that is much more effective and reliable than Obi’s volatile and fragmented support base. It is this humongous political machine, which includes loyal delegates, that is considered essential for winning party primaries and mobilizing votes across the country. This is what will enable Atiku beat Obi at the ADC primary if they both get to that point.
It is also not in doubt that Atiku has the war chest to effectively run a nation wide campaign. He has proven this time and time again. He remains the most experienced and most strategic presidential candidate. With his legion of supporters breaking boundaries for him, he understands the political terrain more than Obi or any other candidate for that matter. And the President and his team know this. It is not exaggerated to say that they dread to see Atiku on the ballot again. Any discerning mind can tell from their body language and utterances that the presidency is hoping the ADC would pick Obi, a candidate considered a weaker opposition, as against Atiku, the man they are reluctant to meet at the political battle field for the second time.
Tinubu has gone to battle with Atiku once, he knows how grueling it was. He knows how he close his victory was. If he can help it, he is not looking forward to another one. He and his people prefer an Obi running on the ADC ballot as presidential candidate. It makes their work easier, almost a walk in the park, considering Obi's limited appeal and weakened stronghold. This time, victory is much more assured, certain there’ll be a wider gap between Tinubu and Obi when the results are announced in 2027.
---Steve Davidson is a Lagos based journalist and political affairs commentator.
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