In a couple of weeks from now,
November 5, 2024 to be precise, the whole world will watch with bated breaths
as citizens of the United States of America go to the polls to elect a new
president. It is going to be a straight battle between the Democratic party’s
Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump of the Republican party. And
from what we are seeing coming from the polls, it’s going to be very, very
tight, the type many will describe as a close call.
Here in Nigeria, the enthusiasm in
the outcome of the election is pretty high as well. Many Nigerians are
following campaign events leading to the election very closely. And that is
uderstandable. Nigerians have probably the largest number of African immigrants
in the United States and the fear of most Nigerians back home is that Donald
Trump, a man who has clearly shown how much he despises immigrants, might send
many Nigerians homebound if he wins the election. This would shatter many
Nigerias who have spent several years toiling and labouring in the United
States. And that is one situation many Nigerians don’t want to see come to
light. They do not want to see their relatives who have been working hard and
sending money home to make life better for them sent packing from the US.
And the story is the same for other
immigrants in the US, they do not pray to see a Donald Trump victory come
November 6 when the election results, expectedly, would have been announced.
And from the look of things, Kamala Harris is getting a lot of support and
admiration, not just from Americans, but from around the world. People are
drawn to her for various reasons. Many admire her on account of her incredible
intelligence and smartness, while others simply love the fact that she’s a
simple, good natured and compassionate human being. And yes, there are
thousands, if not millions, like we have here in Nigeria, who love her simply
because she’s a gorgeous looking woman and her laugh just takes everyone’s
breath away. It’s a unique kind of laughter that only comes from people who are
pure and kind in their spirit, a clear departure, a total contrast from the
mean and grouchy demeanour of the former president many do not want to see anywhere
near the White House again.
Many are already seeing the Kamala
Harris emergence as divine and not something that’s happened by chance. To many
close observers, and honest Democrats, Joe Biden, who, it must be said, has
been a fantastic president, never quite looked ‘mentally fIt’ enough to take on
Donald Trump at that ill fated debate. Even if he had managed to come out of
that debate unscathed, with age slowing him down, how would he have coped with
the gruelling campaigns? It certainly couldn’t have been any easy for the 81
years old President. It was only befitting that Kamala would step into his shoes
and take his place as the presidential nominee and presidential flagbearer of
the Democratic party, an opportunity she has not only grabbed with both hands
but has done incredibly well, turning around the fortunes of the her party by
knocking up the figures and going neck to neck with Trump in most of the polls.
And in some cases, she’s done much better figures than Donald Trump. This has
really excited a lot of Americans and a lot of immigrants as well, just as it
has excited Nigerians in Nigeria and the Unite States. Its really starting to
look like it might be a ‘Kamala day’ come November 6.
According to CNN report, one of the
exciting things about the Kamala Harris prospect is that she seems to have more
appeal among voters of color and younger voters than Joe Biden did
before he got out of the presidential race. Still, the 2020 results show that
Harris can make up even more ground with these groups in her expected matchup
against Donald Trump.
Going by CNN/SSRS poll, Harris leads
Trump among Black voters 78% to 15%. Among these same voters (the poll
recontacted the same respondents), Biden was ahead by a smaller 70% to 23% in
CNN polling data from April and June.
The same holds to a somewhat lesser
degree among Hispanic voters. Harris comes in at 47% to Trump’s 45%, while it
was 50% for Trump to 41% for Biden among these same respondents in the April
and June data.
Voters under the age of 35
demonstrate a similar shift. It’s Harris 47% to Trump’s 43% now. In April and
June, these same voters put Trump up 49% to 42% over Biden.
In some ways, none of these shifts
are very surprising. Biden was doing the worst for a Democrat this century
among all these traditionally Democratic-leaning groups. In fact, his
performance among Hispanic and Black voters was the worst for a Democrat in
over 50 years.
Harris probably had nowhere to go
but up with these segments of the electorate.
Despite the improvement, the results
should leave much to be desired for Harris. She is doing at least 5 points
worse than Biden did among these same groups in the final 2020 polls.
Among Black voters, Biden led Trump
84% to 9% at the end of the 2020 campaign. Even more notable is that Biden led
among Hispanic voters by a 58% to 32% spread.
Finally, even as Harris has become a
meme favorite among young voters, Biden’s 60% to 31% advantage over Trump at
the end of the 2020 campaign is massively larger than where Harris is right
now.
(Note the polling at this point in
the 2020 campaign was similar to what the polls at the end of the campaign
showed.)
This may seem like bad news for the
Harris campaign, and, in one clear way, it is. Without improving among these
groups, Harris likely cannot win against the former president.
The good news for Harris, though, is
that she’s showing that she can make up some ground with this group relative to
how Biden was doing earlier this year.
As Harris continues to define
herself separately from being Biden’s vice president, there’s a real chance she
could carve out her own political identity that may appeal more to voters of
color and young voters.
The fact that Harris over performs
Biden among voters of color also provides her an opportunity to open up more
paths in the Electoral College.
Biden’s pathway to 270 electoral
votes seemed rather limited. He was likely going to need to run the table in
the northern battleground states by carrying Michigan, Pennsylvania and
Wisconsin, as well as Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. His
polling in the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina
had been poor.
If he won the northern battleground
states and the other Democratic-leaning states (minus those aforementioned Sun
Belt states), Biden would have gotten exactly the 270 electoral votes he needed
to win.
A big reason Biden struggled in
those Sun Belt states is that each has a significant share of either Black
or Hispanic voters. By doing better with those groups, Harris may reopen the
possibility of more electoral paths.
If, for instance, Harris won all
four Sun Belt battlegrounds mentioned above, she wouldn’t need to carry
Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin.
Perhaps more likely, Harris could
get to 270 electoral votes by winning some mixture of northern battlegrounds
and Sun Belt swing states.
The bottom line is that the latest
CNN polling provides the Harris campaign with some hope. It’s not that Trump
isn’t favored or that Harris doesn’t face an tough climb.
Rather, Harris now has a bunch of paths toward victory, while Biden’s options seemed to be closing rather quickly. And if he Harris sustains her impressive momentum, or even takes it a notch higher, she could very well coast home to victory come November 6.
WALE LAWAL (08037209290)
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